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Well, what a mess

18/09/05

Permalink 12:06:55, by matt Email , 261 words   English (NZ)
Categories: Politics

Well, what a mess

No clear winner, or even really a definite leader. It could go to Helen, it could go to Don. The specials are an enormous part of the total vote cast - 10%, roughly - and on those votes we could watch the Greens vanish entirely. If that happens, things will get very interesting indeed.

Based on the advanced vote, I'm predicting that the Greens will gain another MP on the list, and that Progressive will just inch over the qualifying point to get a list seat.
I'm also expecting Winston to challenge the results of the Tauranga electorate vote, which could yet see him returned as the MP for Tauranga. If that happens, National will be down a seat and NZ First up one. That will give Labour a clear lead, and put them into strong negotiation territory with both NZ First and United Future over a confidence-and-supply arrangement. The Greens, being unpalatable to most of the other parties, may well be left to fumble along as the unacknowledged sidekick of Labour, kept away (we pray) from the Cabinet table and thus unable to do any real damage. If keeping the Greens at arm's length is what it takes for Helen to secure the support of NZF and UF, who between them currently have 10 seats - rising to 11 if Winston regains Tauranga - then that is what she'll do.

Now we have to wait out the fortnight for the specials to all come in. It's just like Florida all over again, except that this time I have faith that the will of the electorate shall prevail.

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Shocking as it may be, I think, and sometimes those thoughts are almost worthy of public contemplation. So, here are those some thoughts, with no guarantees as to their validity, worth, or utility to the cosmos. All thoughts are my own, representing only my thoughts, opinions and positions, unless explicitly otherwise stated. This blog is not an official or unofficial outlet for any company or government body, or for person other than myself.

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